Hold or markdown calculator.

Worked example

An item cost $20 and is listed at $50. Net if it sells at $50: $50 − 13.6% ($6.80) − $0.40 − $6 shipping − $1 supplies = $35.80. Holding it costs $20 × 12% ÷ 12 = $0.20 of tied-up money plus $1 of storage rent share ($100 across 100 items) = $1.20 a month. You think it has a 20% chance to sell each month at $50, a 50% chance after a 20% markdown (a $40 price, net $27.16), prices drifting down 5% a month while you wait, a three-month horizon and a $5 liquidation value. The calculator values each path and shows which is highest. Change the probabilities and the answer changes, which is the point: the decision hinges on numbers you estimate.

How the model works

Methodology. For each month k from 1 to your horizon, the chance the item sells in that month is p×(1−p)^k−1, and if it sells it nets the price (reduced by the monthly drift for each month waited) after fees. Holding cost is charged for each month elapsed, including the full horizon if it never sells. If it is still unsold at the end, the liquidation value is added. Holding cost per month = capital tied up × annual cost of money ÷ 12 + storage rent ÷ items stored. The summary line also shows a one-month rule: chance to sell × net price after drift − holding cost, compared with liquidating now.

This is the same carrying-cost idea as the inventory carrying cost calculator, applied to one item. For the share of stock that sells in a period see the sell-through calculator, for how long stock lasts the days of inventory calculator, and to convert a monthly sell chance into 30, 60 and 90 day odds the sell-chance page.

Why the purchase price should not decide it

What you paid is gone whichever option you pick, so it cannot make waiting better. It matters only because capital you free up today can be used again; the field for capital tied up lets you use either the purchase price or the liquidation value. If an item is worth $5 today, holding it for a hoped-for $50 is a bet whose cost is the $5 you could redeploy plus storage.

How to use it well

Run it on the items that have been listed longest, since those are the ones where the choice is real. Enter honest sell chances: if a listing has had no views for a month, a 20% monthly chance is optimistic. Try three markdown sizes and compare the totals to find where a deeper cut stops adding value. Review the monthly holding cost too; if storage rent is the biggest part of it, the cost is shared across all items, so clearing slow stock lowers the cost for everything that stays. Repeat the exercise each month, because the best option can change as an item ages.

What this tool does not cover

• Where to sell. Fee differences are on the platform comparison.
• Any real sell probability. The two probabilities are inputs you estimate; the page cannot know them.
• Tax treatment of write-offs or donations. General information only; see the IRS pages cited and consult a professional.
• Items whose value jumps, such as collectibles after news, or seasonal items that return in season.
• Platform rules about relisting, listing duration or fees on promoted listings.

Sources (retrieved October 2026)

• eBay fee tables: final value fee percentage and per-order fee used as the default inputs. Retrieved October 2026. Rates differ by category and change, so check the page for your category.
• IRS About Schedule C (Form 1040): how self-employed sellers report profit or loss. Retrieved October 2026.

Every other number on this page is an input you type or an assumption labelled as an example. Results vary, and nothing here is an income claim.

FAQ

How long should I hold inventory when reselling?

There is no fixed number. Value the options with your own sell chances and holding costs and see where waiting stops beating a markdown or liquidation.

Should I mark down or wait?

Mark down when the higher sell chance times the lower price beats waiting after holding costs. The calculator compares them directly on your inputs.

Does the price I paid matter?

Not for choosing the best option, because it is spent either way. It matters as capital tied up, which you can set separately.

What is a holding cost?

The cost of money tied up in the item plus its share of storage rent for each month it stays unsold.

What if the sell chance is 0% or 100%?

At 0% it never sells, so the value is the liquidation value minus holding costs. At 100% it sells in month one at the current price.