Is grading worth it?

Answer

Grading is worth it when the expected value of the graded outcomes, after selling fees, beats the raw sale by more than the cost to grade. In the example below it beats selling raw by $17.85 per card, and it still pays if the top-grade chance is at least 16.3%.

Worked example

Raw value $40, grading $25 plus $5 shipping and insurance, selling fee 13%. Odds and sold-comp values: 30% top grade at $200, 50% middle at $60, 20% low at $25. Expected sale $95.00, or $82.65 after the 13% fee. Selling raw nets $34.80. Gain from grading = $82.65 - $30.00 cost - $34.80 = $17.85 per card (59% on the $30.00 spent). The top-grade chance needed to break even is 16.3%.

How it works

Expected net = sum over grades of chance x (sale value x (1 - selling fee %) - fixed fee). Gain = expected net - (grading fee + shipping) - net from selling raw. ROI = gain / cost to grade. The break-even top-grade chance raises the top chance and shrinks the other two in proportion until the gain is zero.

Where the inputs come from. This tool has no built-in prices or fee schedules because they change. Read the fee for your service level from the grading company, use recent sold listings for each grade, and be honest about the odds: centering, corners, edges and surface decide the grade, and graded populations show how often a card earns each one.

What this is not. It is an expected value over many cards. A single card either earns the top grade or it does not. Turnaround times, market movement while you wait and the chance of a card being altered or rejected are not modelled.

Sources and basis (checked 2026-10-05): Arithmetic on expected value; every fee, price and probability is entered by you, so nothing here depends on a published fee schedule or a price list.

FAQ

Is it worth grading a card?

It is when expected net proceeds from the graded outcomes exceed the raw sale plus the cost to grade. Enter your own numbers above to test a specific card.

How do I estimate the odds of each grade?

Inspect centering, corners, edges and surface honestly, and look at the grader's population report and recent sold listings for that card. Be conservative.

What is the break-even chance of a top grade?

The chance of the top grade at which grading and selling raw are expected to net the same, with the other grade chances scaled to fill the rest.

Do I count shipping and insurance?

Yes. Divide the submission shipping and insurance by the number of cards and enter that per card, plus any return shipping.

Does it work for any grader or sport?

Yes. Pokemon, sports and other cards, PSA, BGS, CGC or SGC, since you enter the fees and values.