Yahtzee odds calculator.

Answer

If you chase a Yahtzee for a full turn of three rolls and always keep the most common face, the chance is 4.60% (1 in 22). Other three-roll chances with best play: large straight 26.11%, small straight 61.54%, full house 36.29%. On a single roll a Yahtzee is 6/7,776, 0.077%.

Worked example

Single roll of five dice: there are 7,776 outcomes and 6 of them are five of a kind, so the chance is 6 / 7,776 = 0.077%. With three rolls and optimal keeping, the search over every keep choice gives 4.60%. Holding three fives with one reroll left, the other two dice must both land on 5: (1/6)^2 = 2.78%.

How it works

Rules. Yahtzee is played with five dice that you can roll up to three times in a turn, setting aside any you want to keep. Categories used here: Yahtzee is all five dice the same; Large Straight is five sequential dice; Small Straight is four sequential dice; Full House is three of one number and two of another (five of a kind does not count as a full house here); Three and Four of a Kind need at least three or four dice the same.

Method. A dynamic-programming search over every possible set of five dice (252 combinations) and every choice of which dice to keep, working backward from the final roll. For each position it picks the keep that gives the highest chance of finishing in the chosen category. That is the best play for that one goal; it does not weigh which category is worth the most points or what is still open on your scorecard.

Not modeled. Scores, bonus rules, and the Joker rule. Real play usually mixes goals, so the numbers are the ceiling for each single category.

Sources and basis (opened 2026-10-08): Yahtzee (Wikipedia) for three rolls per turn and the category definitions; probabilities computed by exhaustive search, verified against brute-force enumeration in the test suite.

FAQ

What are the odds of rolling a Yahtzee in one turn?

About 4.60% if you go for Yahtzee all three rolls and keep the most common face each time, which is 1 in 22.

What are the odds of a Yahtzee on the first roll?

6 of 7,776 outcomes, 0.077%, or 1 in 1,296.

How likely is a large straight in a turn?

26.11% with three rolls and best keeping. On a single roll it is 240 of 7,776, 3.09%.

Which dice should I keep?

Choose Dice I have now, enter your five dice and the rerolls left. The tool shows the dice to keep to maximize the chance of the category you chose.

Why do the odds differ from my scorecard decisions?

This tool optimizes one category at a time. A real turn also weighs points, bonuses and what is still open, so it can be right to chase something with lower odds.