Online hustles
Short-video virality scenario calculator.
Short-form views are not evenly spread: most posts land near your median and a few land far above it. Enter your own outcome tiers and probabilities and see the expected value, the typical post, and the chance of at least one hit in N posts.
Chance of at least one hit in N posts = 1 - (1 - p)^N, where p is the chance a single post is a hit. At an assumed 8% per post, 30 posts gives about 92%. The 8% is a placeholder, not a measured rate; this is scenario modelling, not a prediction.
Your numbers
Result
The card shows only the numbers on this page, labelled as a model with your own assumptions. It is built in your browser and nothing is uploaded.
Worked example
Suppose your median post gets 1,000 views. You assume 45% of posts get half of that, 35% get the median, 12% get 2x, 6% get 5x and 2% get 20x. The probabilities add to 100%. With "hit" meaning 5x or more, p = 8%. Expected views per post = 1,000 x (0.45 x 0.5 + 0.35 x 1 + 0.12 x 2 + 0.06 x 5 + 0.02 x 20) = 1,515, which is 1.52 times the median. Over 30 posts the chance of at least one hit is 1 - 0.92^30, about 91.8%, and it takes about 9 posts to pass 50%. About 46% of the expected views come from the hit posts, so a run without a hit looks much weaker than the mean suggests.
How it works
Instead of one average, the model uses a short list of outcomes, each a multiple of your own median with a probability you set. Views for a heavy-tailed process are often summarised this way because the mean is pulled up by rare large results while the median stays put. The calculator shows both, and the ratio between them.
Methodology
Expected multiple = sum of p_i x m_i; expected views = median x expected multiple. Median tier = the multiple where cumulative probability first reaches 50%, with tiers sorted from low to high. p_hit = sum of p_i for tiers with m_i at or above your hit multiple. P(at least one hit in N) = 1 - (1 - p_hit)^N. Posts for a 50% chance = ln(0.5) / ln(1 - p_hit); it is not reachable if p_hit is 0 and 1 post if p_hit is 100%. Probabilities must total 100% (within 0.01), N is a whole number of at least 1 (fractions are rounded down), and the median must be above zero. Optional earnings multiply views by your net pay per 1,000 views. Posts are treated as independent, which they are not in practice.
What this does not cover
- A prediction for any post or account. The tiers are your assumptions, and the defaults are not measured rates.
- Why a post spreads: the topic, hook, timing, audience and platform ranking all matter and none is modelled.
- Links between posts: one hit can lift the next ones, or a ban can end the run.
- What a platform pays per view; see how views turn into money.
- Whether any reported viral rate applies to you; see what is viral.
Once you have a view figure, turn it into pay with the YouTube earnings calculator or check the time cost with the YouTuber hourly rate calculator.
Results vary. This page is arithmetic on assumptions you enter. It does not know what any platform, buyer or audience will pay you, it is not a forecast, and it is not an offer or a promise of income. Tax content is general information, not tax advice; check the IRS or CRA source or ask a qualified preparer.
Everything runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent or stored.
Sources
No outside statistic feeds the calculator; the formulas are standard probability. For why definitions of viral differ, see the pages below.
- Catching a Viral Video - Google Research (2010)
- Understanding Indicators of Virality in TikTok Short Videos (arXiv 2111.02452)
Retrieved 2026-10.
FAQ
What is the chance of going viral?
No source can give a reliable chance for your account. This tool lets you set an assumed chance per post and shows what it implies over N posts. Treat the output as a scenario, not a forecast.
Why is mean views so much higher than median views?
A few very large results pull the mean up while a typical post stays near the median. Planning around the mean overstates a normal stretch of posts.
How many posts until I get a hit?
Posts for a 50% chance = ln(0.5) / ln(1 - p). At an assumed 8% per post that is about 9 posts; at 2% it is about 35. The answer is only as good as the p you enter.
What counts as a hit?
You decide: any multiple of your own median views. A hit at 5x is far more common than one at 100x, and the answers change with the choice.
Can I use this to predict my income?
No. It shows how heavy-tailed assumptions behave. Earnings from short-form video vary widely and are often zero.