Tax · Canada
Refund estimator.
Estimate whether you'll get a refund or owe at tax time, based on your income, deductions, credits, and tax already paid through source deductions.
A tax refund is the tax already withheld or paid during the year minus the tax you actually owe once credits and deductions are applied; if the result is negative you owe a balance. This estimator makes that comparison from the income, deductions and credits you enter.
Source: CRA — T4127 Payroll Deductions Formulas, 122nd edition (January 2026); CRA — Current year tax rates and income brackets (2026) · As of
Cite this page: TNAADO Tools, “Tax Refund Estimator 2026: Canada”, https://tools.tnaado.ca/calculators/tax/tax-refund/
For a full Ontario tax estimate with the surtax and Health Premium, use the Ontario income tax calculator.
Inputs
Your refund
Fill the form and press Calculate.
How the estimate works
Your tax owing = tax on (income − deductions) − non-refundable credits. Your refund = tax already paid − tax owing. We use the 2026 federal and provincial/territorial brackets with the basic personal amount, and apply standard credits for donations, medical expenses (above 3% of income), and childcare. Provincial low-income tax reductions and the Ontario Health Premium are not modelled.
Worked example: $85,000 income, $18,000 withheld, $5,000 RRSP
An Ontario employee earns $85,000, had $18,000 of income tax withheld during the year and contributed $5,000 to an RRSP. The calculator subtracts the RRSP deduction, giving taxable income of $80,000, federal tax of $10,293 and Ontario tax of $4,455: total tax of $14,747. Because $18,000 was already paid, the estimated refund is $18,000 − $14,747 = $3,253.
| Situation | Taxable income | Total tax owing | Tax already paid | Refund or balance owing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5,000 RRSP, $18,000 withheld | $80,000 | $14,747 | $18,000 | Refund $3,253 |
| No RRSP, $18,000 withheld | $85,000 | $16,230 | $18,000 | Refund $1,770 |
| $5,000 RRSP, only $12,000 withheld | $80,000 | $14,747 | $12,000 | Owing $2,747 |
- The RRSP is worth $1,483 of refund here, which is $5,000 × the 29.65% marginal rate.
- The refund depends on withholding as much as on tax. The same tax bill of $14,747 gives a $3,253 refund if $18,000 was withheld and a $2,747 bill if only $12,000 was.
Next steps: see where the tax comes from with the income tax calculator, test a different contribution with the RRSP tax savings calculator, or estimate take-home pay and withholding with the paycheque calculator.
How this is calculated
- Taxable income = total income − RRSP contributions − child care expenses.
- Tax = 2026 federal plus provincial bracket tax on taxable income, less the basic personal amount credit (the same engine as the income tax calculator).
- Medical credit: 15% of eligible medical expenses above the lesser of 3% of income and the calculator’s fixed dollar threshold. Donation credit: 15% on the first $200 and 29% above.
- Refund = tax already paid − tax owing after credits; a negative result is a balance owing.
Federal brackets are the 2026 rates on the CRA’s tax rates and income brackets page; provincial rates and basic personal amounts follow the CRA’s payroll formulas, T4127 (both checked 1 October 2026). The estimate leaves out provincial credits, the Ontario Health Premium, CPP and EI credits, the Canada employment amount, tuition, spousal and other credits, so your assessed result will differ. A refund is an overpayment of tax during the year, not extra income.
An estimate for education, not tax advice. Your notice of assessment from the CRA is the authority.
TNAADO Inc. · Toronto
A refund is an overpayment, not a windfall
A refund is the difference between the tax withheld from your pay across the year and the tax you actually owed once credits and deductions were applied. It is your own money, lent to the government at no interest. This estimator sets tax payable on the 2026 brackets against the tax you say was withheld. A large refund usually means the TD1 on file overstates withholding, or a deduction such as RRSP contributions, childcare or union dues never reached payroll.
The mistake people make. Reading the refund as a measure of how the year went. Two people with identical incomes and identical tax bills can get wildly different refunds purely because of what their employers withheld. The number worth watching is total tax payable. If the refund is consistently large, a T1213 request to reduce tax deductions at source converts it into cash flow during the year instead of a lump sum in the spring.
Frequently asked questions
How is a tax refund calculated?
Total tax for the year, after deductions and credits, is compared with the tax already withheld or paid. If more was paid than owed, the difference is refunded; if less, you owe the balance. This tool does the same arithmetic with the 2026 federal and provincial brackets.
Why is my estimated refund different from my actual refund?
This estimator covers the basic personal amount, RRSP and child care deductions and the federal medical and donation credits. Real returns also include CPP and EI credits, the Canada employment amount, provincial credits, tuition, spousal amounts and more, each of which changes the result.
How much will an RRSP contribution add to my refund?
In the example, a $5,000 contribution raises the refund by $1,483, from $1,770 to $3,253, which is the contribution times the marginal rate.
What if I owe money instead?
If less tax was withheld than your tax for the year, the tool shows a balance owing. With only $12,000 withheld, the same example owes $2,747. Self-employed people and those with other untaxed income often owe at filing time.
Is a large refund good?
It means you overpaid during the year and lent the government the money interest-free. If a large refund is routine, you can ask the CRA on form T1213 to reduce the tax deducted at source and receive the money through the year instead.
Disclaimer
Estimates for educational purposes only. Real CRA assessments include many additional credits (dependants, disability, etc.) not modelled here.