Creator income

Viral hit scenario modeller.

Describe your own assumptions: what share of videos flop, land average or hit, and how many times baseline views each tier gets. The tool returns expected views, expected payout and the chance of at least one hit across N posts. Runs in your browser; nothing is sent or stored.

P(at least one hit in N posts) = 1 - (1 - p)^N, where p is the hit share you enter. This is scenario modelling from your assumptions, not a prediction and not a measured base rate.

Your numbers

Result

Worked example

Baseline 5,000 views; 70% flops at 0.4x, 27% average at 1.5x, 3% hits at 40x. Expected views per video = 5,000 x (0.28 + 0.405 + 1.2) = 9,425. Over 30 posts the chance of at least one hit is 1 - 0.97^30 = 59.9%, and the hits supply 63.7% of expected views. Notice how skewed it is: the standard deviation (33,603) is far above the mean.

How it works

Each video is treated as an independent draw: flop with probability p_f, average with p_a, hit with p_h. With multiples m_i of baseline views, expected views are base x Σ p_i m_i, and the variance is base² x Σ p_i m_i² minus the squared mean. Over N posts expected views scale by N.

The chance of at least one hit uses the complement: the probability that all N posts miss is (1 - p)^N. The tool also solves for the number of posts needed to reach a 50% and a 90% chance of at least one hit.

No one can supply a reliable hit rate for you: platforms do not publish one and every channel differs. The example numbers are labelled assumptions chosen to show the maths; replace them with data from your own account, and treat independence as an optimistic simplification (posts are often correlated by topic, timing and audience).

Methodology

All maths is plain arithmetic on the numbers in the form, run in your browser, with blank fields treated as zero and negative or non-numeric entries rejected. Published figures were read from the sources below in 2026-10; rates, RPMs, multipliers and probabilities are always inputs you control, never claims. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you type is sent or stored. Results come from the numbers you enter, not from your real account. Terms change: check each source before relying on a figure.

What this does not cover

A real or measured viral probability for any platform or niche
Algorithm changes, trends, correlation between posts or follower growth
Platform eligibility or payout rules (see the Shorts and TikTok pages)
The cost or time of making N videos

This tool does not predict or promise earnings, does not read your real channel or account, and does not model income tax, self-employment tax, currency conversion, brand deals, YouTube Premium revenue or other revenue streams. Results vary and depend on the assumptions you enter.

Results vary. This is a model that uses the assumptions you enter. It is not a prediction, a forecast or a promise of earnings, and it is not financial or tax advice. Virality here means a modelled scenario, not a measured probability.

Sources

Shorts revenue sharing: how the Creator Pool works - YouTube Help (retrieved 2026-10)

This tool is not affiliated with YouTube, Google or TikTok.

FAQ

What are the chances of a video going viral?

Nobody can give you a reliable number. This tool computes consequences of the percentages you assume, so the output is only as good as those inputs.

How is the chance of at least one hit calculated?

1 - (1 - p)^N for a hit share p and N independent posts.

Why can the expected value mislead?

A few hits can supply most expected views while most videos land below the average. The standard deviation and the share from hits show that skew.

Is this a prediction of my income?

No. It is a scenario model, results vary, and real posts are not independent coin flips.