Nightlife (what-if model)
Promoter income scenario calculator.
Set your own low, mid and high show rate and conversion, plus the names you bring, pay per head and nights worked. The page shows how much the result moves. It is a labeled what-if, not a prediction.
Heads paid = names x show rate x conversion. With 100 names at 10%, 25% and 40% show rates, $5 per head, $20 expenses and 4 nights a month, the three scenarios give $30, $105 and $180 per night, or $120, $420 and $720 a month. Those rates are illustrations for the method, not data.
Your numbers
Result
Worked example
A promoter brings 100 names a night, is paid $5 per head who counts, spends $20 a night and works 4 nights. Low: 10% show and 100% count gives 10 heads, $50 less $20 = $30 a night, $120 a month. Mid: 25 heads, $105 a night, $420 a month. High: 40 heads, $180 a night, $720 a month. The high month is six times the low month from the same effort, which is the point of the exercise: income from per-head pay swings with show rate, so a plan should survive the low case. A bad night with zero arrivals is simply -$20 here (the expenses).
Method and what this is
This is a base-rate style what-if model. You choose three assumptions for each driver; the tool multiplies them through: heads = names x show rate x conversion, night = heads x pay per head - expenses, month = night x nights. It does not estimate how likely any scenario is, and it has no data about real promoters. Pick rates from your own past nights, ideally from records of names versus actual check-ins, and treat the low case as a plausible bad month rather than the worst case.
Why show it? Because the guest-list-to-arrival gap is the least certain input, and small changes there move income more than almost anything else in the model. If your low case loses money, adjust your costs or your deal before relying on it.
What this does not cover
- Chance or probability of any scenario. No likelihood is calculated or implied.
- Real show or conversion rates. Every rate here is yours to enter.
- Seasonality, weather, venue changes, or growth in your following.
- Taxes (see the take-home calculator) or deductions.
- Pay models other than a flat amount per counted head (percent of spend, door splits, tiers).
Results vary. This page does arithmetic on the numbers you type. It does not predict or promise any income, and it uses your assumptions, not typical ones.
Methodology
General information, not financial advice.
FAQ
What is a promoter show rate?
The share of the names you brought who actually arrive. Only you can estimate it, ideally from past nights where you compared names to check-ins.
How many people on a guest list actually show up?
It varies by night, venue and promoter, and this page does not supply a figure. Enter your own low, mid and high.
Is this a forecast of my income?
No. It is a what-if on three sets of assumptions you type. It shows sensitivity, not likelihood.
What is conversion in this model?
The share of arrivals that count for pay, for example after door rules, age or dress-code rejects, or guests not on the paid list. Leave it at 100% to ignore the step.
How should I choose the low, mid and high rates?
Use your own record. Take the worst typical night as low, a normal night as mid and a strong night as high. Don't use someone else's numbers.