Immigration · IRCC processing times · Permanent residence
Permanent residence processing times: how many are ahead of you.
IRCC’s forward-looking wait for permanent residence programs, the queue behind each, and where an application from your month sits.
18 programs listed. 640,600 people are waiting across them (permanent residence), as of IRCC’s October 9, 2026 update. Shortest wait for a new application: Canadian Experience Class (Express Entry), about 6 months. Longest: Start-up Visa, more than 10 years.
IRCC refreshes this monthly. Our copy fetched October 26, 2026.
Where am I in line?
Your place in the queue
Choose a program and the month you applied.
Permanent residence: people waiting and current wait
IRCC does not publish one number for permanent residence. For each program it gives three: how many people are waiting, how long a new application would wait, and, for each month you applied, how many people are ahead of you and how many months are left.
The table below shows the first two. “People waiting” is the size of the queue today. “Wait for a new application” is IRCC’s estimate of how long an application filed now would take to reach a decision. Neither says when your own file will be decided; use the calculator above for the month you applied.
| Program | People waiting | Wait for a new application |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Skilled Worker (Express Entry) | 58,300 | about 7 months |
| Canadian Experience Class (Express Entry) | 53,900 | about 6 months |
| Provincial Nominee Program (Express Entry) | 13,100 | about 7 months |
| Provincial Nominee Program (paper-based) | 96,500 | about 13 months |
| Quebec skilled workers | 20,500 | 11 months |
| Atlantic Immigration Program | 11,500 | about 26 months |
| Caregiver programs | 36,400 | about 77 months |
| Start-up Visa | 47,500 | More than 10 years |
| Self-employed persons | 8,000 | More than 10 years |
| Quebec business immigrants | 3,600 | about 75 months |
| Humanitarian and compassionate (outside Quebec) | 58,800 | More than 10 years |
| Humanitarian and compassionate (Quebec) | 20,800 | More than 10 years |
| Protected persons in Canada (outside Quebec) | 77,600 | about 13 months |
| Protected persons in Canada (Quebec) | 42,600 | More than 10 years |
| Government-assisted refugees (outside Quebec) | 17,900 | about 14 months |
| Government-assisted refugees (Quebec) | 400 | about 9 months |
| Privately sponsored refugees (outside Quebec) | 71,000 | about 40 months |
| Privately sponsored refugees (Quebec) | 2,200 | about 54 months |
The biggest queue is Provincial Nominee Program (paper-based) with about 96,500 people waiting.
History since October 20, 2026
Backlog history appears here once the recorder has a second observation.
IRCC publishes only the current figure and keeps no public history, so we record it ourselves. Our recording began October 20, 2026; a line appears once a value has changed, and a recorder feed is checked in your browser for a longer history when one exists.
How to read “people ahead of you”
“We calculate forward-looking processing times using: the total number of applications we already have to process for a given program; the number of applications we expect to process each month going forward… This means the amount of time you have left to wait will generally decrease, but can also increase.”IRCC, Check processing times, “How we calculate estimated (forward-looking) processing times” and “Why processing times change” (read October 26, 2026)
That is why the two numbers can look odd together. A program can show tens of thousands of people waiting and a wait of a few months because IRCC finishes many applications a month. Another can show a small queue and years of wait because it finishes only a few.
The month calculator turns IRCC’s per-month table into one line: how many people are ahead of an application received in your month, and how many months IRCC says are left. Older months showing “Less than 100 people ahead” are nearly at the front.
Where IRCC says it “needs more time to process” an application, the tool shows no months-left figure rather than guess.
Worked example
Take Provincial Nominee Program (paper-based). IRCC lists about 96,500 people waiting and a wait for a new application of about 13 months.
An application received in September 2026 is the newest month, so everyone in the queue, about 96,500 people, is ahead of it, and about 13 months remain. An application received in January 2026 has only about 41,000 people ahead, so it is reached sooner.
The takeaway: the month you applied matters more than the headline queue. Across the 18 programs on this page 640,600 people are waiting in all, and one program’s queue is only part of that.
Common mix-ups
- Comparing a queue size with a wait. A large queue can clear quickly if IRCC finishes many applications a month, and a small one can last years if it finishes few.
- Expecting the months left to fall every month. IRCC says the time left will generally decrease but can also increase.
- Counting from the day you clicked submit. IRCC starts the clock when it has your complete application, so a missing document or unpaid fee pushes the start date back.
- Assuming Quebec and the rest of Canada share one line. IRCC publishes them separately where Quebec selects its own applicants.
Frequently asked questions
How long does permanent residence take right now?
It depends on the program. IRCC’s current figures for new applications range from about 6 months (Canadian Experience Class (Express Entry)) to more than 10 years (Start-up Visa). Pick your program in the table above.
What does “first in line” mean?
IRCC’s first-in-line figure is its estimate of how long a new application would wait before a decision, based on applications already in the queue and how many it expects to finish each month going forward. It is forward-looking, unlike the backward-looking 80% figure used for visas and permits.
How often does IRCC update these numbers?
IRCC labels this data monthly. The update behind this page is dated October 9, 2026 and we fetched it October 26, 2026.
Why is my place in line different from last month?
People ahead of you fall when IRCC finishes older applications and can rise if IRCC reallocates staff or cap space, or if the queue grows. IRCC says the time left “will generally decrease, but can also increase”. We record each update so the history here will show changes.
Can this tell me when I will get my decision?
No. It repeats IRCC’s estimate for the group of applications from your month. Individual applications can finish earlier or later, for example if more documents or checks are needed.
Is this the official IRCC tool?
No. TNAADO Tools is independent and not affiliated with IRCC. The official tool is Check processing times.
Sources and update path
IRCC first-in-line data updated October 9, 2026; fetched October 26, 2026. History recorded since October 20, 2026.
- IRCC, Check processing times (official tool and definitions)
- IRCC public data file behind the tool (first-in-line and people ahead)
On November 12, 2026 IRCC’s public data file still showed the October 9, 2026 update, with the same figures for the programs checked (Provincial Nominee Program paper-based, Canadian Experience Class and Start-up Visa).
Estimates, not decisions
These are IRCC’s published estimates, re-presented by TNAADO Tools, which is not affiliated with IRCC or the Government of Canada. No tool here can tell you when your own application will be decided, and nothing on this page is immigration advice. Always check your own case on IRCC’s official tool and your application status in your IRCC account.