How long will the model take to download, and will it fit?

Answer

Download time is file size in bits divided by the speed you actually get in bits per second. Connection speeds are quoted in megabits per second and files in bytes, so divide by 8: a 500 Mbps link at 80 percent efficiency moves 50 MB per second.

Worked example

An 8.03 billion parameter model at Q4_K is 4.517 GB (4.21 GiB). A 500 Mbps link at 80 percent gives 50 MB/s, so one file takes 90 s and three take about 4.5 min (13.55 GB). On a 1,000 GB disk with 600 GB used and 10 percent kept free, 300 GB is usable, enough for 66 such files. The 70.554 billion parameter model at Q4_K would take 13 min on the same link.

Formulas and notes

• File bytes = parameters × bits per weight ÷ 8, or the size you enter (1 GB = 10⁹ bytes, 1 GiB = 2³⁰ bytes, per NIST).
• Seconds = file bytes × 8 ÷ (Mbps × 1,000,000 × efficiency).
• Usable disk = disk size − used − disk size × free-space reserve. Files that fit = usable ÷ file size, rounded down.
• The efficiency and reserve are assumptions you control, not published figures.
• Bits per weight come from the Hugging Face GGUF documentation; real files differ a little, so enter the exact size when the model page lists it.

Planning estimate only, not a benchmark: real memory use and speed depend on the model file, the runtime, the driver and the hardware. Sources, opened 2026-10-08: Hugging Face Hub documentation, GGUF · llama.cpp source, ggml-common.h (block_q8_0 and block_q4_0 structs) · NIST, Prefixes for binary multiples · Hugging Face, unsloth/Meta-Llama-3.1-8B (config.json, parameter count)