Ecommerce KPIs
Subscribe and save margin.
Enter price, cost, the subscriber discount and a continue rate. See margin per subscription order, expected orders and how many orders a subscriber needs to out-earn a one-time buyer.
Expected orders = (1 - r^n) / (1 - r) for a per-order continue rate r over n orders. At 80% over 6 orders a subscriber places about 3.69 orders.
Your numbers
Result
Worked example
A $40 product costs $18 to ship out, so a one-time order earns $22 (55%). A 15% subscriber discount makes the price $34 and the margin $16 (47.06%). If each subscriber has an 80% chance of placing the next order, over 6 orders they place (1 - 0.8^6) / 0.2 = 3.69 orders, worth 3.69 x $16 = $59.05. A one-time buyer placing 1.5 orders earns 1.5 x $22 = $33, so a subscriber needs only 33 / 16 = 2.06 orders to match.
How it works
Subscriber price = list price x (1 - discount). Margin per order = price - variable cost, so the discount comes straight out of margin.
Expected orders = 1 + r + r^2 + ... + r^(n-1) = (1 - r^n) / (1 - r). The subscriber always places the first order; each next order happens with probability r (the continue rate). At r = 100% they place all n; at r = 0% only 1.
The continue rate and the one-time buyer's order count are your assumptions; measure them from your own subscriber and customer data. This page does not provide benchmarks.
Orders needed = one-time buyer profit / subscription margin per order. If that is below the expected subscription orders, the programme out-earns one-time buying under your assumptions. It is blank when the subscription margin is zero or negative.
It ignores discounting, payment failures and acquisition cost. This is pure arithmetic with no outside source.
Basis: No external source is needed: the formulas are the identities for margin and the geometric sum shown above.
Inputs are user-entered figures. Results are planning estimates, not financial advice or a forecast of future performance. Everything runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent or stored.
FAQ
How do I calculate subscribe and save margin?
Take the list price less the subscriber discount, then subtract variable cost per order. Divide by the subscriber price for a percentage margin.
What continue rate should I use?
Use the share of subscribers who place a second order, then third, from your own data. Enter the average. This page does not suggest a figure.
Why compare against a one-time buyer?
A subscription discount only pays off if the extra orders from subscribers outweigh the margin given away on each order.
Does this include customer acquisition cost?
No. Subtract acquisition cost from both profit figures to compare them after acquisition.